AN ASSESMENT OF THE NATIONAL GRID FAILURES AND THE WAY FORWARD

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Electricity has become an essential element of contemporary life worldwide, serving various purposes such as employment, transportation, communication, healthcare, education, and daily living activities including lighting, cooking, and temperature control. (Adeyemi, 2019). Consequently, the absence of electricity, or its insufficient provision, has repercussions for households, businesses, and the whole economy. The significance of electricity has led the United Nations and its member nations to prioritize the objective of guaranteeing universal access to inexpensive and environmentally friendly energy by the year 2030. 

Despite substantial public investment throughout the years, Nigeria still faces difficulties in ensuring consistent and dependable electrical supply. The absence of electricity access has impeded development by exerting a detrimental impact on both the productive sector and educational and workforce engagement (Farouk, 2022). The state utility firms (NEPA subsequently PHCN) has a history of consistently performing below expectations, which necessitated a reform of the power sector. This reform resulted in the privatization of the generating and distribution sectors of the energy value chain in 2014. 

The lack of progress in the Nigerian electric power sector following the reform has presented a significant obstacle for the government, private investors, electrical specialists, development partners, and scholars (Eke, 2019). They are now faced with the task of devising creative solutions to address this persistent problem, which is hindering the achievement of energy goals. An enduring problem in the industry is the recurrent incidence of the National grid collapse, which has plagued the country for a prolonged duration (Orok, 2018)

An electric grid is a network of coordinated electricity producers and consumers, managed by one or more control centers, and linked by transmission and distribution lines (Itina, 2020). An electricity distribution network, known as the power grid, is utilized to provide users with electrical power. The power system comprises generator stations, transmission towers, and distinct consumer distribution lines. The generator is responsible for the production of energy. To distribute energy, convert it into a high voltage. The Nigerian national electrical grid comprises the Transmission Company of Nigeria, generation businesses, and distribution companies. Private firms are authorized to engage in the generation and distribution of electricity (TCN, 2023). 

The Federal Government of Nigeria has the sole task of transmitting electricity generated by the producing business to the distribution firms at a standardized voltage of 330kV and 132kV. Regrettably, the Nigerian grid only produces an average of 4,500MW per day, despite having a generating capacity of around 14,000MW, as reported by the transmission company. In addition, the country has achieved a record peak generation of 5801.60MW, the highest daily energy production of 119,471.55MWH, and a maximum peak producing capacity of 7099MW (TCN, 2023). The electrical industry's generation, transmission, and distribution stages are interconnected through the national grid. 

Multiple grid failures have occurred in Nigeria due to the grid's inability to promptly respond to various system dynamics. Despite the rapid growth of Nigeria's economy, the power infrastructure in the country has been unable to provide sufficient electricity to meet the demands of both households and industries (Itina, 2020). The country possesses significant deposits of coal, oil, gas, and uranium, which positions it as the leading oil producer in Africa. However, the shortage of power has significantly impeded the existence of these firms, despite their vast resources. Merely 45% of Nigeria's populace has access to electricity, and even among those who have, over 85% encounter frequent power troubles. In many locations, the availability of electricity is virtually non-existent (Aliyu et al., 2019). Consequently, other adverse consequences have ensued, such as the swift depletion of essential public resources like potable water and improved healthcare facilities, alongside the shutdown of businesses and the decay and disintegration of infrastructure. 

A study conducted by James in 2023 concluded that the Nigeria National grid is prone to fault-induced collapses. This highlights the characteristics of the NNG, including its weak and stressed nature due to heavily loaded lines, long lines, and radial networks. The analysis indicated that the rate of fault-induced collapse was 86% in 2018, 83% in 2019, and 96% in 2020. The average rate of fault-induced system breakdown throughout the three-year period was approximately 88%. This indicates that the NNG is particularly susceptible to voltage instability. The high incidence of system failure can be attributed mostly to technological problems within the network. The condition of the power system equipment and the overall network performance indicates the presence of technical difficulties. According to Amadi & Ekeng (2024), the technical challenges consist of outdated and obsolete power system equipment, insufficient compensation equipment on the system, faulty and weak protection system, a weak network resulting in random tripping of the lines, a shortage of power generation due to increasing consumer demand, weak wheeling power, and a poor maintenance culture. 

In 2019, Nigeria saw around 10 distinct instances of grid collapses, as reported by Kadiri (2020). The cost ramifications and vexation caused by these accidents are significant and unacceptable to both residential and commercial consumers. Several industries that depend largely on a sufficient power supply have shut down due to insufficient electric power. The inadequate functioning of the nation's electricity infrastructure has a substantial effect on small businesses and manufacturers of large machinery. An insufficient and unreliable power supply generally has a detrimental effect on the overall social, psychological, and physical well-being of the population. The country's electricity supply's lack of dependability has had a substantial impact on the nation's economic stagnation. The substandard services have compelled the majority of industrial clients and individuals to install their own power generators, incurring significant expenses for both themselves and the Nigerian economy. Therefore, the necessity for doing this investigation arises. 

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The electrical system in Nigeria is a crucial sector that demands immediate focus in order to recover the country's economy, which has been steadily declining over time. Nigeria has persistently grappled with difficulties in its power sector, which have posed substantial hindrances to the country's economic progress and the daily lives of its citizens (Amadi & Ekeng, 2024). The lack of reliable electricity provision has had significant detrimental effects on the industrial and residential development of the region, particularly considering its continuously expanding population. This research aims to evaluate the grid's breakdown and suggest multiple strategies to alleviate the precarious state of the grid. 

According to Amadi & Ekeng (2024), one reason for the failure in the National grid is the unwillingness of Nigeria's power system to upgrade its facilities to match current technological advancements. This includes incorporating SCADA, GPRS, PLCs, and IT applications to make the system SMART (Self-Monitoring, Analysis, And Reporting Technology). The lack of improvements leads to grid breakdowns since the system is unable to efficiently monitor and identify flaws in order to swiftly apply steps for predictive and preventive maintenance. Imoh (2024) corroborates this assertion by stating that in October 2023, there were two occurrences of system failure, one of which was attributed to the detonation of a capacitive voltage transformer (CVT) at Kanji power station. 

Also, over the past nine years, Nigeria has had over 200 instances of failure of its national energy infrastructure, resulting in regular and widespread blackouts. Power outages incur substantial economic and societal expenses as they impede individuals' ability to fulfil essential domestic and commercial needs (Itina, 2020). Nigeria possesses the largest economy in Africa, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) amounting to USD 375.8 billion as of 2017. Unlike other similar systems, the Nigerian grid has not met the expected performance standards. Each 1% rise in power outages (measured in hours) in sub-Saharan Africa has been correlated with a 2.5% decrease in GDP (Comfort, 2021). This is equivalent to a decrease in GDP of around USD 28 billion. 

In addition, Lois (2019) noted that the hydrocarbon emissions from generators, which are widely utilised in Nigeria, have detrimental effects on the ozone layer and also provide health risks. According to Charles (2019), the projected yearly fuel usage for electrical generator sets is estimated to be $22 billion. Moreover, electricity plays a crucial role in propelling socioeconomic progress in every nation and constitutes approximately 35% of the expenses incurred in industrial output. The entire power grid is increasingly experiencing instability and unreliability as a result of the escalating problem of system collapse. It is against this backdrop that this study is conducted to thoroughly evaluate the occurrences of national grid failures and determine the appropriate course of action. 

1.3 Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to assess the National grid failures and determine the way forward. Specific objectives of this study are to:

Assess the extent the national grid failure in Nigeria.

Explore the causes of the national grid failures in Nigeria.

Examine the effects of the national grid failures in Nigeria.

Proffer recommendations in mitigating the extent of national grid failures in Nigeria.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What is the extent the national grid failure in Nigeria?

What are the causes of the national grid failures in Nigeria?

What are the effects of the national grid failures in Nigeria?

What are the recommendations in mitigating the extent of national grid failures in Nigeria?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

The following hypothesis will be validated in this study::

Ho: The extent the national grid failure in Nigeria is low.

Ha: The extent of National grid failure in Nigeria is high

1.6 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focuses on the assessment of the National grid failures and the way forward. Specifically, this study seeks to assess the extent the national grid has failed, the causes of the national grid failure, the effects of the national grid failure on national development, and the solutions in mitigating the extent of national grid failure in Nigeria.

1.7 Significance of the study

This study will serve as a baseline for researchers and students and also guide government, policy makers. The study will also help in making decisions by the stakeholders concerning power generation.

The study will help to enhance public knowledge regarding the crucial concerns associated with the national power grid and its instances of failure. Heightened consciousness can stimulate the public's desire for responsibility and enhancements in the energy industry. Consequently, this promotes a society that is well-informed and takes proactive measures to support sustainable and efficient energy solutions.

Finally, this study will also serve as a reference material to students and researchers for further studies and future research.

1.8 Limitations of the study

As is customary in all human undertakings, the researchers encountered modest constraints during the investigation. A major limitation of the study is the researcher's financial constraint, as they are a full-time student without any means of income to sustain themselves.

Another limitation was the lack of extensive literature on the subject, as there is limited data available on the assessment of the National grid failures and the way forward. Consequently, a significant amount of time and effort was necessary to locate the appropriate resources, books, or information, as well as to gather data. Also, this study is constrained by its small sample size and narrow geographic scope, as it just focuses on only a part of Nigeria. Consequently, the results of this study are not applicable for generalization, thereby leaving room for other research.

Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to do this research while also fulfilling obligations such as attending lectures and other educational activities. 

1.9 Definition of terms

Voltage collapse: Voltage collapse is the partial or complete loss of end users' or customers' access to the electrical power grid

Power outage: an interruption or failure in the supply of power, especially electricity. the period during which power is lost

National grid: The national grid is an interconnecting system that comprises all generation stations, transmission substations, and distribution substations.

National grid failure: A national grid failure refers to a widespread power outage in which the electrical power system of an entire country or a substantial part of it experiences a complete breakdown. Consequently, there is a pervasive disruption of electricity, impacting residential areas, commercial establishments, transit systems, and vital infrastructure. Possible causes of failure include technical malfunctions, natural calamities, cyber assaults, or operational mistakes.