A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE CONSEQUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH NATIONAL GRID COLLAPSE IN NIGERIA

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Background of the study

Access to reliable and affordable electricity is unquestionably vital as a socio-economic catalyst to encourage the growth of a nation's struggling economy, enhance job creation, and reduce crime. Ensuring the stability of the electricity system is crucial for ensuring this. The Nigeria National Grid (NNG) is the main electrical distribution network used in Nigeria. An electric grid is a system of interconnected energy generators and users, overseen by one or more control centres, and connected by transmission and distribution lines. The power grid, also referred to as an electricity distribution network, is employed to supply clients with electrical power. The power system consists of generation stations, transmission towers, and separate consumer distribution lines. The generator generates energy for distribution and converts it into high voltage (Samuel et al., 2019).

Oluwole (2019) provides a concise definition of a power grid as a sophisticated network of interconnected transmission lines that enable the efficient transfer of electricity from power generation sources to the locations where it is utilised. Thermal and hydro power plants are linked to transmission substations around the country by various electrical cables called transmission lines (Samuel et al., 2019). Even if one generator fails, the grid system guarantees a continuous supply of electricity, allowing for optimal usage and efficiency. Ekeng (2023) defines a power grid as a network of interconnected power sources that connect the sites where electricity is generated and consumed. Electrical networks of different sizes can be used to cover entire countries or continents. The energy grid is a complex and vital system that is considered one of the most important engineering achievements of the modern age (Omoh, 2020). 

Ishola (2022) posits that the power grid operates by transmitting electricity produced at various facilities to consumers, frequently over considerable distances. An electrical grid station is an essential component in the widespread distribution of power across a country. The primary goal of a power grid system is to efficiently provide a sufficient and economically feasible amount of electricity to all locations where it is consumed, while ensuring a high level of dependability and minimising the likelihood of operational failures. Therefore, it is expected that a power grid system will operate at optimal efficiency without experiencing any system failures during its operations (O'Connor, 2002: Ekeng, 2023).

The power system network is anticipated to produce and transmit electricity to different load centres at predetermined voltage and frequency levels, while considering the limitations of deviation from the system's base levels. The voltage must fall between the specified range of (330kV, 33kV, 11kV) with a tolerance of 0.5%, while the typical nominal frequency should be 50Hz with a tolerance of 0.5%. Any deviation from these stability criteria can lead to a decrease in power quality and, in severe instances, trigger widespread power outages (NERC, 2019). Victor (2021) states that the generators of the system produce either 11kV or 16kV, which are subsequently raised to 330kV or 132kV for transmission. In places with high population density and high rates of energy consumption, the voltages are gradually reduced. The voltage of 330 kV is first decreased to 132 kV, and subsequently dropped to 33 kV, which is known as the primary distribution voltage. Subsequently, the voltage is reduced to 11 kV, which serves as the secondary distribution voltage. The nominal frequency is 50Hz with a tolerance of plus or minus 0.4%. Subsequently, the frequency is decreased to 0.415 kilovolts for a line-to-line connection and 230 volts for a line-to-neutral connection.

According to Tejuosho (2023), Nigeria now has a total of twenty-three operational grid-connected generators, consisting of two hydro generators and twenty-one thermal power plants. The thermal power generating has a total capacity of 8,457.6 megawatts (MW), with an operational capacity of 4,996 MW. The hydroelectric facility has a combined capacity of 1,938.4 MW, with 1,060 MW currently available for use. The total installed capacity is 10,396 MW, whereas the capacity that is currently available is 6,056 MW. According to Tejuosho (2023), effectively maintaining and managing these 23 grids can provide a continuous supply of power to Nigerians. Nigeria has consistently had challenges in its power sector, primarily due to the collapse of the national grid. This has significantly hindered the country's economic development and affected the daily lives of its residents. A power system collapse occurs when all power generating stations connected to the grid shut down abruptly or simultaneously (Akanimoh, 2021). 

In cases of grid overload or transmission line failure caused by excessive or insufficient frequency, the system is compelled to undergo a shutdown, worsened by the absence of a proficient Energy Management System (EMS) (Henry et al., 2022). The grid collapse, often referred to as voltage collapse, results in the disruption of energy delivery to the areas and consumers connected to the grid (Efe, 2022). While voltage breakdown is infrequent in Western countries, despite their extensive and intricate networks, it is a frequent occurrence in Nigeria. 

The absence of consistent energy supply in the area has had substantial adverse impacts on the growth of both industrial and residential sectors, especially considering the ongoing increase in population (Abass, 2024). At around 04:28 PM on March 28, 2024, the national power system had a total collapse, causing power generation to abruptly drop from approximately 2,984 megawatts (MW) to zero within one hour. The event was caused by a fire outbreak and explosion on the Kainji/Jebba 330kV line 2 (circuit K2J), which specifically damaged a blue phase CVT and a blue phase line isolator on the Kainji/Jebba 330kV line 1 (Transmission Company of Nigeria, 2024).

The power sector has had significant setbacks as a result of periodic system collapses, despite the government's claims of devoting different sums to the sector. Although the government has devoted a considerable amount of financing to the power sector, it nevertheless faces severe setbacks due to frequent grid breakdowns. An analysis of the frequency and structure of grid failures in the country gives rise to substantial apprehensions regarding its susceptibility and the detrimental effect it has on the nation's advancement and long-term sustainability (Akintayo, 2023). Therefore, the necessity for this investigation arises. 

Statement of the Problem

The fact that the national grid has seen over nine instances of breakdown within a span of one year under President Tinubu's current administration is quite astonishing. Despite the confirmation made by the President in his New Year message that a continuous electricity supply is necessary for real economic transformation by 2024, this situation still occurs. Notwithstanding this proclamation, we encounter accounts of recurrent national grid breakdowns. The repercussions entail extended periods of power outages, with the majority of businesses and households encountering more difficult obstacles on a regular basis. 

The occurrence of a national grid collapse leads to significant discomfort and cost detriment for both residential and industrial customers (Ekeng, 2023). Many enterprises that rely largely on a reliable power source have experienced significant setbacks as a result of frequent power supply disruptions, which are caused by the expensive operation of diesel generators (Omotayo, 2021; Ekeng, 2023). The underperformance of the power sector has an equivalent effect on small businesses and manufacturers of large machines. Inadequate and unstable energy supply frequently impacts citizens in social, psychological, and physical aspects (Akanimoh, 2021).

 In general, the shortcomings of the Nigerian National Grid (NNG) has had a substantial impact on the lack of progress in the Nigerian economy. As a result of inadequate service, the majority of industrial clients and individuals have been compelled to construct power generators, resulting in substantial expenses for both themselves and the Nigerian economy (Jude, 2021). In light of this situation, this study aims to thoroughly evaluate the repercussions linked to the breakdown of the national grid in Nigeria.

1.3 Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically assess the consequences associated with National grid collapse in Nigeria. Specific objectives of this study are to: 

Determine the extent of National grid collapse in Nigeria

Identify the factors that may contribute to grid failures in Nigeria.

Find out the effects of National grid collapse to Nigeria economy.

Proffer recommendations for improving the reliability and stability of the national grid.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What is the extent of National grid collapse in Nigeria?

What are the factors that may contribute to grid failures in Nigeria?

What are the effects of National grid collapse to Nigeria economy?

What are the recommendations for improving the reliability and stability of the national grid?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

The following hypothesis will be validated in this study:

Ho: The extent of National grid collapse in Nigeria is low

Ha: The extent of National grid collapse in Nigeria is high.

1.6 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focuses to critically assess the consequences associated with National grid collapse in Nigeria. Specifically, this study focuses on assessing the impact of national grid collapse on the economic growth of Nigeria economy, and examine the factors that causes national grid collapse in Nigeria.

Further, this study will focus on finding out the effects of National grid collapse to Nigeria economy, and it also seeks to address the causes of National grid collapse in Nigeria.

1.7 Significance of the study

This study offers a comprehensive examination of the economic consequences, emphasizing the pressing requirement for a more dependable electricity provision to maintain economic expansion and efficiency.

Furthermore, the results obtained from this study are of utmost importance in guiding the development and execution of policies within the energy industry. The research provides useful insights into the underlying causes and consequences of grid breakdowns, which can inform policymakers and stakeholders in devising methods to improve grid stability and resilience. 

Finally, this study will also serve as a reference material to students and researchers for further studies and future research.

1.8 Limitations of the study

Like in every human endeavour, the researchers encountered slight constraints while carrying out the study. The significant constraint was the scanty literature on the subject owing that there are no much data on the topic of consequences associated with National grid collapse in Nigeria. Thus, much time and organization was required in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection. Also the study is limited in sample size and geography covering only Akwa Ibom State. Therefore, findings of this study cannot be used for generalization thus creating a gap for further studies. 

Also encountered was time constraint as the researcher had to carry out this research in addition to attending lectures and other educational activities required of him.

1.9 Definition of terms

Voltage collapse: Voltage collapse is the partial or complete loss of end users' or customers' access to the electrical power grid

Power outage: an interruption or failure in the supply of power, especially electricity. the period during which power is lost

National grid: The national grid is an interconnecting system that comprises all generation stations, transmission substations, and distribution substations.