ASSESSMENT OF URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AS A DETERMINANT OF POLITICAL UNREST IN DOUALA, CAMEROON

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

In today's world, the issue of unemployment has become increasingly prominent and is a growing concern on a global scale. The unemployment rate is a key indicator of a country's economic health. According to Amadeo (2018), unemployment refers to individuals who are currently without a job and actively seeking employment. As per Batu's research in 2017, it is stated that unemployment is the result of individuals actively seeking employment but being unable to find work. This includes people who are willing to work and are either employed or actively searching for jobs. Young people are valuable contributors to a country's growth and success. Efficiently harnessing the potential of capable and determined young individuals has the power to drive meaningful progress in the socio-economic advancement of a nation (Msigwa et al., 2023).  Youth are significantly impacted by the current employment crises, experiencing long-term unemployment that can have devastating effects. This can lead to a sense of demoralisation and exclusion from the labour market (Caha et al., 2020).

Throughout the world, the recent financial and economic crisis has resulted in a significant increase in youth unemployment. Nevertheless, prior to the crisis, the job situation, including youth unemployment, was already a significant concern in the majority of countries. In Africa for instance, the issue of youth unemployment is further compounded by the unique challenges faced by the younger population. Compared to other regions, Africa has a significantly larger youth population, which adds to the complexity of the problem. Additionally, the national labour markets in many African countries are not as robust as desired, making it even more difficult for young people to find employment. Moreover, the persistently high levels of poverty in the region contribute to the overall challenge of addressing youth unemployment. A significant majority of the population in the region is below the age of 30, with a slightly higher percentage being young individuals aged 15 to 24 (Mayowa et al., 2019). In recent times, the North Africa region has witnessed violent social uprisings, with a significant involvement of young people. This region has the highest youth unemployment rates globally, with one in four young individuals reported as jobless.

Multiple studies highlight the potential dangers of youth unemployment and underemployment on the stability of nations, both socially, economically, and politically (Urdal, 2019). There are two main lines of theorising that have been observed in cross country evidence. One perspective highlights the significance of political repression in fuelling conflict. From this perspective, it can be argued that marginalised ethnic groups are more prone to resorting to armed uprisings against the government. Additionally, conflicts are more likely to arise in countries with undemocratic systems and significant social divisions (Miguel, 2007: Wasiu et al., 2022). This is also likely to occur in a society that is less divided, but where individuals experience feelings of marginalisation due to unemployment or extreme poverty. Another set of theories places greater emphasis on economic conditions as the primary factor, rather than political factors. Put simply, from this perspective, poverty and declining income are the driving forces behind civil conflicts. There are two main reasons why armed violence and uprisings occur in impoverished areas. One reason is that poverty creates a breeding ground for individuals who resort to looting assets and natural resources through armed means. The other reason is that poor states often lack the necessary institutional capacity to effectively suppress armed uprisings (Miguel, 2017).

As per the research conducted by Jamal et al., (2023), political unrest refers to a state of uncertain or volatile political conditions, which may include conflicts, governance problems, or shifts in government. The study of the causes of political instability has not received as much attention in social science papers as its impact on economies. A study on youth bulges and political violence was conducted by Musa (2018). It has been discovered that the presence of youth bulges greatly heightens the likelihood of conflict eruption. The statistical relationship remains consistent even when considering other factors such as level of development, democracy, and conflict history. Additionally, the findings are reliable across different technical specifications. With every rise in the percentage of young people compared to adults, the likelihood of conflict grows by over four percent. In many developing countries, when the youth make up more than 35% of the adult population, the likelihood of armed conflict is significantly higher compared to countries with a demographic structure similar to most developed nations. In 2010, the proportion of 15–24 year-olds in the total adult population was relatively low in most developed countries, with a median of 15%. In the same year, 44 developing countries witnessed significant increases in their youth populations, reaching 35% or more (Mane et al., 2019).

The literature has also highlighted the significance of the labour market in understanding the occurrence of civil violence outbreaks (Dwayne et al., 2023; Wida, 2022; Liu, 2019; Collins, 2017). If the labour market is unable to accommodate a sudden influx of young job-seekers, a significant number of unemployed youths will likely experience considerable frustration. The socioeconomic challenges linked to youth bulges may create an environment conducive to the recruitment of individuals into terrorist organisations (Liu, 2019). Some authors highlight the importance of expanding higher education as a strategy to mitigate the risk of political violence. Research has indicated that men with higher levels of education are less likely to engage in political violence (Antony et al., 2019). Given the advantages that come with education, individuals who have received a formal education are more inclined to prioritise their financial stability and are therefore less inclined to participate in acts of rebellion (Collins, 2017). In a study conducted by Brett et al., (2017), interviews with young soldiers revealed that factors such as poverty, lack of schooling, and limited alternative income opportunities play significant roles in their decision to join a rebel group.

This perspective is widely accepted by researchers. In 1974, Choucri made a compelling argument about the detrimental effects of high unemployment among educated youth on the stability and potential for violence within any regime. This perspective was later cited by Liu in 2019. Historical episodes of political upheaval have often been preceded by a significant rise in the number of educated youths (Stone, 2021). There is a viewpoint that suggests the growth of higher education in several Middle Eastern countries has led to a surplus of educated young individuals who are unable to find suitable employment. This situation has been linked to an increase in radicalisation and the recruitment of new members for militant organisations in the region (Lia, 2019).

Douala, being Cameroon's commercial capital, faces a significant challenge of urban unemployment. As per the International Labour Organisation (2022), there is a significant disparity in unemployment rates between urban and rural areas in Cameroon. Douala, in particular, stands out as a major hub for this problem. The city's unemployment rate, which has a significant impact on its youth population, is worsened by the rapid urbanisation and population growth (International Labour Organisation, 2022). This trend highlights a discrepancy between the increasing number of individuals looking for work and the limited job openings that are currently available. Unemployment in urban areas such as Douala is associated with a range of socio-economic issues. High unemployment rates have a significant impact on the economy, leading to hardships, inequality, and a decline in the overall quality of life. The World Bank (2023) emphasises the detrimental impact of long-term unemployment on poverty rates, which can ultimately undermine social unity and exacerbate socio-political unrest (World Bank, 2023). The economic strain experienced by individuals can lead to feelings of dissatisfaction and frustration, which can then result in different types of political unrest. Empirical studies have demonstrated that urban unemployment can serve as a trigger for political unrest by generating circumstances of economic desperation and social instability. As per a study conducted by the African Development Bank (2021), it has been observed that there is a strong correlation between high unemployment rates in urban areas of Africa, including Cameroon, and a rise in political volatility and unrest (African Development Bank, 2021). This correlation highlights the significance of tackling unemployment as both an economic concern and a factor that impacts political stability. Therefore, the necessity for this study arises.

1.2 Statement of the problem

Urban unemployment is a significant socio-economic concern in numerous developing nations, such as Cameroon, where it has been associated with a range of social and political instability. In Douala, the economic capital of Cameroon, the issue of high unemployment rates, especially among the younger population, has become a matter of great importance. The city's rapid urbanisation, along with the lack of job opportunities, has resulted in a rising number of unemployed individuals who are becoming more disenchanted with the socio-political system (Tonga et al., 2022).

The correlation between unemployment and political unrest in Douala is intricate and diverse. Unemployed urban residents, particularly the youth, frequently face feelings of frustration, hopelessness, and anger as a result of their struggle to find stable and fulfilling employment (Shehu, 2019). This discontent can result in a decline in trust in government institutions and a perception of an unfair system, potentially sparking involvement in protests, strikes, and other types of political opposition (Tchamda & Bah, 2018).

In addition, the economic challenges linked to joblessness contribute to social disparities and exclusion, which are significant factors behind political turmoil (Fils, 2019). In Douala, there is a significant disparity in wealth and economic opportunities, with a small group of individuals holding the majority of resources. This stark contrast, combined with high levels of poverty and unemployment, contributes to a tense social environment. These tensions are frequently intensified by ineffective governance, unethical practices, and a dearth of openness, eroding the public's confidence in political leaders and institutions (Fonchingong, 2020).

The effect of urban unemployment on political stability is a matter of great importance, not only for Douala but also for the wider region. The potential for political turmoil in this significant city can have far-reaching consequences across Cameroon (Fade et al., 2021). Addressing the underlying factors contributing to unemployment and implementing policies that foster job creation and economic inclusion are crucial for ensuring social and political stability in Douala. Therefore, the importance of this study cannot be overstated.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically Assess Urban Unemployment as a Determinant of Political Unrest in Douala, Cameroon. Specific objectives of this study are to:

To find out whether there is a relationship between urban unemployment and political unrest in Douala, Cameroon

To identify the key risk factors associated with urban unemployment and political unrest in Douala, Cameroon 

To Assess the Impact of urban unemployment on social and economic stability in Douala, Cameroon.

To propose strategies for mitigating urban unemployment as a means of preventing political unrest in Douala, Cameroon

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

Is there a relationship between urban unemployment and political unrest in Douala, Cameroon? 

What are the key risk factors associated with urban unemployment and political unrest in Douala, Cameroon?

What is the Impact of urban unemployment on social and economic stability in Douala, Cameroon?

 What are the strategies for mitigating urban unemployment as a means of preventing political unrest in Douala, Cameroon?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

To determine the effectiveness of this study, the following research null hypotheses will be formulated to guide the study and it will be tested at 0.05% levels of significance.:

Ho: There is no significant relationship between urban unemployment and political unrest in Douala, Cameroon.

Ha: There is a significant relationship between urban unemployment and political unrest in Douala, Cameroon.

1.6 Significance of the study

This study is of great significance to various stakeholders, such as policymakers, scholars, and the general public. It aims to investigate the crucial connection between urban unemployment and political unrest in Douala, Cameroon.

The findings of this study will offer valuable insights for policymakers at both the local and national levels. Through a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between urban unemployment and political instability, this study provides valuable insights that can inform the creation of focused policies to address unemployment and minimise the potential for social unrest. It is crucial to consider the significance of Douala, as the economic and political situation in this city greatly influences the stability of Cameroon as a whole.

Furthermore, the study's findings will be crucial in comprehending the socio-economic factors that play a role in political unrest in urban settings. By emphasising the impact of unemployment on fuelling discontent and unrest, the study can assist communities and civil society organisations in advocating for economic policies that are more inclusive and address the needs of the unemployed population. This, in turn, can promote social cohesion and decrease the likelihood of conflict.

In addition, the study will highlight the significance of tackling urban unemployment to promote sustainable economic development. By highlighting the economic advantages of decreasing unemployment, such as a boost in consumer spending, increased tax revenues, and a more secure investment climate, the study aims to inspire initiatives to generate employment and enhance the economic landscape in Douala.

In addition, ultimately, the study aims to increase public awareness regarding the risks associated with urban unemployment and its potential impact on societal stability. Recognising this awareness can foster greater public backing for efforts to decrease unemployment and tackle the root causes of political turmoil. 

Additionally, this research will contribute to the current understanding of the socio-political dynamics in urban areas of developing nations, specifically within the African context. This study aims to provide a focused examination of unemployment and political unrest in Douala, offering a localised perspective that can contribute to broader regional and global discussions. Extensive research on these issues globally has already been conducted, but this study will bring a professional and specialised approach to understanding the specific context of Douala.

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focus is to critically Assess Urban Unemployment as a Determinant of Political Unrest in Cameroon. Specifically, this study seeks find out whether there is a relationship between urban unemployment and political unrest in Cameroon and identify the key risk factors associated with urban unemployment and political unrest in Cameroon. 

Further, this study will focus on assessing the Impact of urban unemployment on social and economic stability in Cameroon and it also seeks to strategies for mitigating urban unemployment as a means of preventing political unrest in Cameroon.

 The study is carried out in Douala, Cameroon. 

1.8 Limitations of the study

Throughout the examination, the researchers carefully noted certain limitations that are inherent in all human actions. One of the main challenges we encountered was the lack of extensive literature on the topic. This was mainly due to the limited availability of data for conducting an Assessment of Urban Unemployment as a Determinant of Political Unrest in Douala, Cameroon. Therefore, a significant amount of time and effort was necessary to find the appropriate materials, books, or information and gather data. 

In addition, this study has limitations in terms of its sample size and geographical coverage, primarily focused on Douala, Cameroon. Therefore, the application of the findings from this study to a broader context is restricted, highlighting the need for further research. 

In addition, the limitations faced by the researcher were primarily due to financial constraints. The researcher, being a student, does not have sufficient financial resources to fully support themselves. The exorbitant transportation fees at the study site posed a challenge in meeting the financial obligations related to transportation expenses.

Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to conduct this research while also juggling the demands of attending lectures and participating in other educational activities.

1.9 Definition of terms

Unemployment: Unemployment is a term referring to individuals who are employable and actively seeking a job but are unable to find a job. Included in this group are those people in the workforce who are working but do not have an appropriate job.

Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployed. Consequently, measuring the unemployment rate requires identifying who is in the labor force. The labor force includes people who are either employed or unemployed.

Political unrest: Political unrest refers to a state of uncertain or volatile political conditions, which may include conflicts, governance problems, or shifts in government

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