AN EXAMINATION OF CONSEQUENCES, COUNTERMEASURES, AND MANAGEMENT PLANS OF INCESSANT FLOODING IN THE YEAR 2024. (A CASE STUDY OF LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA)

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

A flood is the result of a large amount of water overflowing or erupting into terrain that is often not underwater (Daniel and Udo, 2019). An extreme weather event, driven by the increase in global temperature, leads to intense rainfall, expansion of the ocean due to heat, and melting of glaciers. Consequently, the rise in sea level causes coastal areas to be flooded. Flooding results in the submergence and damage of vegetation, wildlife, humans, structures, and infrastructure (Ujene and Oguike, 2020). Nevertheless, flooding is a widespread natural calamity that has had a profound impact on human lives, resulting in the destruction of properties and the eradication of species in the ecosystem. Flooding poses a significant risk to the environmental integrity.

Flooding is considered a significant influence in determining the environmental condition of residential neighbourhoods (Basil, 2019). Additional environmental threats encompass drought, desertification, soil degradation, and tsunamis.  Based on the information provided, it is evident why flooding is considered a frequent global phenomenon. Given the worldwide occurrence of floods and its consequential adverse effects, various international regulatory bodies have made multiple efforts to address and control the situation. For example, according to the World Bank Group (2017), numerous countries worldwide have been impacted by flooding. The World Bank (2017) stated that flooding is a common and highly destructive calamity that causes substantial damage and disrupts livelihoods worldwide. 

Flooding is more prevalent in underdeveloped nations as a result of inadequate choices in environmental management. The inadequate management options and enforcement of flooding are caused by a deficient institutional and legislative framework in the development control process in underdeveloped nations (Rabiu, 2019). Developers often construct buildings without taking into account the specific places that are prone to flooding, such as flood plains and other flood-prone zones. Insufficient funding from relevant organisations hampers the establishment of drainage distribution routes and other management strategies that can effectively reduce floods in the environment (Shea, 2017).

Presently, flooding has emerged as the predominant type of substantial calamity. Over the past decade, floods in Europe have caused the deaths of over 1,000 people and affected more than 3.4 million others (Martin, 2021). Like other major disasters or calamities, the consequences on individuals' welfare, social relationships, and entire state of being can have extensive reach. However, flooding stands out from other types of disasters because it has the capacity to be prevented by flood-prevention measures. Moreover, the extended duration of recovery after a flood raises the probability of secondary stressors arising and amplifies the anxieties about future incidents among individuals impacted by floods (Williams, 2021). Furthermore, it is anticipated that climate change may intensify the occurrence of flooding. Projected climate-related increases in precipitation are predicted to amplify the occurrence and severity of floods. As stated by Akin et al. (2021), the European Union should anticipate a yearly rise in the population vulnerable to coastal flooding, which might impact as many as 1.6 million people.

Flooding can result from a variety of sources, such as intense precipitation caused by climate change and global warming. Anthropogenic actions, such as the deliberate clearing of forests and the elimination of wetlands, can also augment the severity and recurrence of flooding (Ishaya et al., 2019). Furthermore, alterations in the path of waterways and the implementation of flood control systems, such as levees, can also have an impact. The risk of flooding is worsened by larger environmental challenges such as climate change and the increase in sea levels (Atkins, 2018). More precisely, the increased rainfall and intense weather phenomena resulting from climate change intensify the effects of other elements that contribute to flooding, resulting in more severe floods and a higher likelihood of flooding. Other elements that can contribute to floods are infiltration capacity, large discharge volumes, urbanisation growth, and the shape of the basin. Although the causes of floods can range throughout different regions of the world, the consequences of global warming may also vary, as noted by Joseph (2022).

Flooding continues to be a significant environmental issue in Nigeria. Multiple studies have demonstrated a high frequency of flooding, as evidenced by the works of Kolawole et al. (2021), Olajuyigbe et al. (2022), Onwuemele (2018), and Bamidele and Badiora (2019). The investigations indicated that flooding has detrimental effects on the viability of livelihoods, as well as social and economic activity. In recent decades, flooding has resulted in the loss of several lives and properties. Flooding in Nigeria is mostly attributed to the inadequate enforcement of planning rules, obstruction of streams and channels caused by indiscriminate waste disposal practices, and human activities in flood plains, as supported by several research (Ituen et al., 2023; Abraham et al., 2021). Available research have observed that flooding has had a significant impact on the lives, properties, and environmental sustainability. Significantly, flooding, as a natural hazard, has adverse consequences not only for the environment but also from an economic perspective. Flooding has a detrimental impact on houses, roads, and other physical buildings, rendering these locations unappealing to residents (Ekpoh, 2018; Evan et al., 2017).

Flooding has emerged as a prominent environmental and socio-economic concern on a global scale, with metropolitan regions being especially susceptible due to reasons such as rapid urbanisation, insufficient infrastructure, and climate change (Udoh, 2018). Lagos State, located in Nigeria, is a prominent economic centre in West Africa, and it is no different in this regard. The year 2024 has witnessed persistent flooding, which has severely interrupted daily routines, resulted in significant property destruction, and tragically claimed lives. This situation underscores the critical necessity for implementing comprehensive flood management techniques without delay. This study aims to analyse the repercussions, strategies to mitigate, and plans to manage the persistent occurrence of floods in the year 2024. A detailed analysis of Lagos state, Nigeria, will be conducted.

1.2 Statement of the problem

In 2024, Lagos State, Nigeria, had an unprecedented surge of flooding, causing significant socio-economic and environmental disturbances. The relentless inundation has resulted in extensive destruction, including fatalities, displacement of inhabitants, property obliteration, and substantial economic setbacks (Abayomi, 2024). Moreover, these floods have worsened health problems and environmental deterioration, presenting a significant danger to the welfare and livelihoods of the residents of Lagos State.

The annual flooding in Lagos is caused by the growing development and expansion of the city, which includes building over natural water channels, uncontrolled land reclamation, and filling of lagoons with sand (Wahab and Ojolowo, 2018; Johnson, 2021). Additionally, historical activities such as dredging and sea reclamation have been carried out to expand the urban area (Whiteman, 2012). In 2019, the built-up regions in Lagos accounted for around 50% of the land use, which is twice the amount compared to 2000 (Kasim and others, 2021, Figure 2). The alteration has subsequently resulted in a rise in the susceptible regions to inundation, expanding from 1% of the urban area in 2000 to about 35% in 2019 (Kasim and others, 2021). Lagos, being an already overcrowded city, experiences an annual population growth rate of 5.7%. Inadequate law enforcement, regulations, poor land-use planning, and the establishment of informal settlements have resulted in the development of wetlands and waterways. This has led to the replacement of natural drainage systems with impermeable surfaces and the settlement of people in high flood-risk areas (Adelekan, 2010; Adeloye and Rustum, 2011; Dano et al., 2020). Moreover, the primary cause of the decline in coastal ecosystems, which are crucial for coastal protection and the resilience of coastal populations, is the expansion of urban areas into wetlands and floodplains. Over the past ten years, about 60 percent of the wetlands in Lagos have been destroyed due to urbanisation. This destruction has directly contributed to a decrease in the city's ability to protect against floods and has exacerbated the problem of flooding (Israel, 2021).

After a flood, there is typically extensive destruction and significant losses, such as the ruin of precious belongings, the displacement of people, the interruption of livelihoods, and the probable obliteration of cultural assets. Some individuals have a proclivity for resorting to drug consumption and the improper use of other illicit substances as a mechanism for dealing with their personal setbacks (Rio et al., 2018). Subsequent to a flood catastrophe, there has been a noticeable increase in the consumption of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the act of withdrawing from social interactions, especially when coupled with emotional detachment, is a prevalent and detrimental habit in interpersonal relationships (Carvajal et al., 2022). Family conflicts may emerge when the primary breadwinner in a household has a loss of income as a result of floods, rendering them unable to provide financial assistance to the family. The co-occurrence of substance misuse and familial issues can cause individuals to develop depression, psychosis, sleeplessness, and other symptoms, ultimately leading to the development of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (Shoemaker et al., 2022). The stress that arises after a traumatic occurrence, the strong concentration on upsetting memories or losses, and the disruption of one's personal life, family, community, and work can all detrimentally affect one's capacity to adjust and manage. Family conflicts and disagreements might emerge, leading to an excessive level of safeguarding of children and occasionally resulting in instances of domestic violence (WHO, 2022). 

Moreover, the rising occurrence and strength of rainfall, exacerbated by climate change, is a significant factor contributing to floods in Lagos. Research has indicated an increase in high-intensity, brief rainfall and low-intensity, prolonged rainfall in comparison to three decades earlier (Odjugo, 2006; Nkwunonwo et al., 2016; Dike et al., 2020). The escalating precipitation rates pose a threat to surpass the ability of Lagos City and its drainage system to absorb water, resulting in a heightened risk of flooding. Moreover, climate change is expected to cause a rise in the occurrence of intense rainfall episodes lasting from one to five days, as well as higher wind speeds. These changes are anticipated to result in pluvial floods, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2021). The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet, 2022) predicts that rainfall in Lagos would climb to 1,750 mm in 2024, compared to 1,627 mm in the previous year.

Despite the combined efforts of government and non-governmental organisations, the current flood management techniques have been deemed insufficient. The repetitive occurrence of the flooding necessitates a meticulous evaluation of the existing preventive measures, their efficacy, and the formulation of all-encompassing and enduring management strategies customised to address the distinct difficulties faced by Lagos State. Therefore, the necessity for this investigation arises.

1.3 Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically examine the consequences, countermeasures, and management plans of incessant flooding in the year 2024. (a case study of Lagos state, Nigeria). Specific objectives of this study are to:

To determine the level of flooding incident experienced in Lagos state.

To investigate the factors associated with incessant flood occurrence in Lagos state

To ascertain the consequences associated with incessant flood occurrence in Lagos state

To ascertain the countermeasures and management strategy implemented to curtail the incident of flood in Lagos state

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions will be answered in this study:

What is the level of flooding incident experienced in Lagos state?

What are the factors associated with incessant flood occurrence in Lagos state?

What are the consequences associated with incessant flood occurrence in Lagos state?

What are the countermeasures and management strategy implemented to curtail the incident of flood in Lagos state?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

The following research null hypotheses are formulated to guide the study:

Ho: There are no significant factors associated with incessant flood occurrence in Lagos state.

Ha: There are significant factors associated with incessant flood occurrence in Lagos state.

1.6 Significance of the study

The importance of this analysis goes beyond comprehending the immediate consequences of flooding in Lagos State in 2024. The objective is to provide information for policy-making, strengthen the ability of communities to cope with and recover from disasters, reduce environmental and health hazards, and support sustainable development initiatives that are resilient to future climate-related difficulties. 

The study attempts to emphasize effective solutions that improve community resilience and readiness by concentrating on management plans. This encompasses many measures such as early warning systems, evacuation strategies, enhancements to infrastructure (such as drainage systems), and efforts aimed at engaging the community. Gaining insight into effective strategies for managing flood damages can empower communities to enhance their preparedness and response to future flooding occurrences.

Additionally, the study will offer vital perspectives on the current strategies and plans put in place by government agencies and other involved parties to address floods. The assessment will evaluate the efficacy of these procedures and identify any deficiencies that require attention. This information is crucial for policymakers and urban planners to enhance current methods and create new ways that are more resilient and adaptable to future flood occurrences.

Moreover, upcoming scholars will utilise it as a thorough examination of the current scholarly literature. Hence, those with a vested interest in this field of study can depend on our research as a reliable and thoroughly evaluated repository of information.

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focus is to critically examine the consequences, countermeasures, and management plans of incessant flooding in the year 2024. (a case study of Lagos state, Nigeria). Specifically, this study seeks to determine the level of flooding incident experienced in Nigeria and investigate the factors associated with incessant flood occurrence in Nigeria. 

Further, this study will focus on ascertaining the consequences associated with incessant flood occurrence in Nigeria and it also seeks to ascertain the countermeasures and management strategy implemented to curtail the incident of flood in Nigeria.

This study will be carried out in Ikeja, Lagos state.

1.8 Limitations of the study

Like in any human attempt, the researchers encountered several small limits during the investigation. The primary constraint was the dearth of comprehensive literature on the topic, given the scarcity of data pertaining to an examination of the consequences, countermeasures, and management plans of incessant flooding in the year 2024. (a case study of Lagos state, Nigeria). Therefore, a substantial investment of time and effort was required to identify the suitable materials, books, or information and to collect data. 

Moreover, this study is limited by its diminutive sample size and restricted geographical range, concentrating just on Lagos. Hence, the findings of this study cannot be extrapolated, thereby necessitating additional research. 

Furthermore, the researcher's restraints were predominantly attributable to financial limitations, as they are a student without a means of revenue to support themselves. The research location's high transportation costs, impacted by current inflation in Nigeria, made it difficult to afford transportation fees.

In addition, the researcher encountered a time limitation as a result of the necessity to do this research while simultaneously meeting the responsibilities of attending lectures and engaging in other educational pursuits.

1.9 Definition of terms

Flood: Flood is an overflow of water onto normally dry land. The inundation of a normally dry area caused by rising water in an existing waterway, such as a river, stream, or drainage ditch. Ponding of water at or near the point where the rain fell. Flooding is a longer term event than flash flooding: it may last days or weeks.

Flood risk: Flood risk is a combination of the probability (likelihood or chance) of a flood event happening and the consequences (impact) if it occurred.

Urbanization: Urbanization is the process through which cities grow, and higher and higher percentages of the population come to live in the city.