INCESSANT FUEL SCARCITY UNDER THE 1 YEAR OF PRESIDENT AHMED TINUBU ADMINISTRATION: ASSESSING ITS IMPACT ON COMMUTERS ACCESS TO TRANSPORTATION IN ZUBA, ABUJA.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Transportation is a vital component in the movement of individuals and commodities between different locations, ensuring prompt, efficient, and successful delivery. An efficient and effective transport system indicates the potential to access different locations and offer travellers high-quality and economical service. The provision of this service incurs certain vehicle operating expenses for service providers, which in turn affects the cost or rate of transportation services. Fuel is one of the significant factors that affect transport prices and transport rates in Nigeria. According to Innocent, Ogbu, and Job (2017), gasoline plays a crucial role in the creation of goods and services across all sectors of the economy. This is why countries deem it vital to subsidise fuel and guarantee that citizens have access to it, since it holds national value. 

As stated by Ezeh (2022), fuel in Nigeria is an inelastic commodity, meaning that both the demand and supply sides are not easily influenced by price changes. Consequently, consumers face significant challenges in finding substitutes for fuel in their daily activities. In Nigeria, there are no options available such as electric trains or solar-powered cars. Additionally, hydropower and dams are not reliable sources of power in the country. Fuel is a significant determinant of vehicle running costs and transport rates in Nigeria. Fuel prices have a significant impact on the cost of transportation, which in turn greatly influences commuters' decisions about the frequency and number of trips, distance travelled, choice of destination, purpose of travel, and method of transportation. 

The implementation of subsidies during President Tinubu's government resulted in fuel scarcity. Consequently, the rise in gasoline prices led to a corresponding increase in the overall cost of goods and services in Nigeria. Hence, the presence or absence of fuel significantly impacts all other variables that influence transportation expenses and rates. According to Julius (2019), scarcity is the discrepancy between the limited supply of resources and the unlimited desires of customers. Fuel scarcity, as defined by Adaugo (2018), is the condition in which the demand and utilisation of fuel surpass the existing supply or prospective quantity of resources. 

Given that petroleum products are the primary energy source for the transport sector, which makes up 92% of energy consumption in the transport sector (Armah, 2003), a shortage of petroleum and its resulting consequences directly affect passengers. 

Several states in Nigeria are currently experiencing fuel scarcity, resulting in the closure of numerous filling stations and prompting long lineups at the limited number of petrol outlets (Premium times, 2024). The scarcity of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), sometimes known as fuel, has resulted in numerous commuters being stuck and a substantial rise in transportation costs. In the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), specifically in Zuba, commuters encounter challenges in accessing transport due to the paucity of PMS (Petrol Motor Spirit) required for transporters to operate their vehicles. The prevailing fuel shortage in the current era has resulted in substantial cost hikes for public transportation companies, with fuel prices continuing to rise rapidly. With the rising cost of fuel, inhabitants of Zuba in Abuja are actively searching for methods to decrease fuel use and mitigate the high expenses associated with transportation. Therefore, the necessity for this investigation arises. 

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Similar to how water and air are crucial for the daily functioning and seamless survival of human beings, the significance of fuel for people cannot be underestimated. Moshood (2023) argues that fuel is utilised in diverse activities such as manufacturing, transportation, culinary purposes, generating energy, and serving as a source of foreign currency, among others. To such an extent, it is widely acknowledged that fuel plays a significant and influential role in the life of every individual person and the nation as a whole. The incidence of fuel scarcity has risen during President Tinubu's administration, owing to multiple variables.

Approximately 40% of the country's gasoline use is reliant on imports, which creates a scarcity during periods of increased worldwide costs or importation delays (Opeyemi, 2023). Nsikan (2024) supports this assertion by claiming that Nigeria is significantly dependent on petroleum imports due to the non-operational status of its refineries. Nigeria experiences persistent fuel shortages due to its underutilization of domestic refineries. Nigeria possesses refineries with a capacity to refine 450,000 barrels of crude oil per day, resulting in millions of litres of refined products (Sunday, 2021). Nigeria should prioritise investment in the modernization and expansion of its refineries to diminish its dependence on imports and guarantee a consistent fuel supply. 

In addition, many retailers of petroleum products saw scarcity as an opportunity to generate higher sales and boost their earnings (Eze, 2022). Many retailers stockpile the product in order to maximise their earnings by selling it at inflated prices. During periods of fuel scarcity, many retailers purchase the product from petrol stations authorised by the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) at the official price of N577 per litre. However, they often sell the same product for as much as N700 per litre. This study aims to examine the persistent gasoline scarcity during President Ahmed Tinubu's first year in office and assess its effects on commuters' access to transit in Zuba, Abuja. 

1.3 Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically investigate the issue of incessant fuel scarcity under the 1 year of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Specific objectives of this study are to:

Assess the extent of the fuel scarcity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration

Find out the causes of the incessant fuel scarcity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration

Examine the effects of the fuel scarcity on Nigeria economy

Proffer solutions in tackling the incessant fuel scarcity in Nigeria

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What is the extent of fuel scarcity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration?

What are the causes of the incessant fuel scarcity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration?

What are the effects of the fuel scarcity on Nigeria economy?

What are the strategies to be employed in tackling the incessant fuel scarcity in Nigeria?

Research Hypotheses

The following research hypothesis will be validated in this study:

Ho: The extent of fuel scarcity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration is low.

Ha: The extent of fuel scarcity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration is high.

1.5 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focuses to critically investigate the issue of incessant fuel scarcity under the 1 year of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Specifically, this study focuses on assessing extent of fuel scarcity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration, the causes of the incessant fuel scarcity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration, the examine the effects of the fuel scarcity on Nigeria economy, and proffer solutions in tackling the incessant fuel scarcity in Nigeria.

This study will be carried out in Nigeria.

1.6 Significance of the study

This study will serve as a baseline for researchers and students and also guide government, policy makers and Educationist. 

This study will also be of great importance to the youths, government and the nation as a whole as it will discuss the relevance of fuel and its impact to our daily activities.

Finally, this study will also serve as a reference material to students and researchers for further studies and future research.

1.7 Limitations of the study

As is customary in all human undertakings, the researchers encountered modest constraints during the investigation. A major limitation of the study is the researcher's financial constraint, as they are a full-time student without any means of income to sustain themselves.

Another limitation was the lack of extensive literature on the subject, as there is limited data available on examination the issue of incessant fuel scarcity under the 1 year of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Consequently, a significant amount of time and effort was necessary to locate the appropriate resources, books, or information, as well as to gather data. Also, this study is constrained by its small sample size and narrow geographic scope, as it just focuses Nigeria. Consequently, the results of this study are not applicable for generalization, thereby leaving room for other research.

Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to do this research while also fulfilling obligations such as attending lectures and other educational activities.

1.9 Definition of terms

Incessant: (of something regarded as unpleasant) continuing without pause or interruption.

Fuel scarcity: Fuel scarcity implies that the demand and use of fuel are high than the actual supply or potential quantity of resources.

Fuel subsidy: Fuel subsidy is a financial assistance provided by the government to reduce the cost of fuel for consumers. It is done to keep fuel prices lower and make it more affordable for the general population