INVESTIGATION INTO SOCIO-ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FOOD INSECURITY IN NIGERIA DURING THE TINUBU ADMINISTRATION

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Background of the study

Food is an essential requirement for all individuals that must be fulfilled in order to maintain a healthy and productive lifestyle. The concerns concerning food security, namely in terms of availability, accessibility/affordability, and sustainable utilisation, continue to be relevant for policymakers and scholars (Aborisade et al., 2017). The potential cause of this could be attributed to the correlation between malnutrition and severe health and physical repercussions (FAO 2012; Ogunniyi et al. 2020; Omotayo 2020). The 1996 World Food Summit produced a comprehensive definition of food security that encompasses four key aspects: availability, access, utilisation, and stability. Food security is the state in which all individuals have consistent and unrestricted physical and economic access to safe and nutritious food, enabling them to sustain a healthy and active lifestyle (FAO 1996, 2012; Bashir et al. 2018). 

On the other hand, a household is considered food insecure when it lacks the financial means or consistent access to an adequate amount and quality of food necessary for maintaining good health (Orosile et al., 2018). Food insecurity can be defined as a severe manifestation of poverty, characterised by the lack of access to fundamental human necessities, such as food, experienced by individuals, households, communities, or nations (Kakwani et al., 2017; Brimah et al., 2017). According to Moses et al. (2019), persons or groups who consistently lack access to sufficient, wholesome, and nourishing food might be referred to as "food-poor". Inadequate access to resources necessary to obtain sufficient food for an individual or household leads to insufficient nutrition, low calorie intake, and poor nutrition. Even a low-income household is not exempt from hunger and the associated health problems, as limited economic access to food can result in poor nutrition (malnutrition), which can be either chronic or temporary in nature (Musiliu et al., 2019).

Pete et al. (2017) accurately express the worldwide perspective on food security, asserting that in the future, guaranteeing access to an adequate and nourishing food supply would become progressively complex in the majority of countries. Global studies investigating the impact of socioeconomic factors on food security have demonstrated that education, income, salaries, household size, occupation, and other household and individual characteristics play a significant role in determining the likelihood of food availability or scarcity (Adeniyi & Dinbabo, 2019; 2020; Ibukun & Adebayo, 2021; Kolawole, 2017). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report (2021) identifies several key socioeconomic factors that significantly influence food security within food systems. These factors include human conflicts, poverty, income level, gender inequalities, access to nutritious diets, the business cycle, technology, and innovation, among others (FAO et al., 2021).

Conflict has a significant impact on food security, in addition to inadequate policy interventions and climate difficulties (Ujunwa, Okoyeuzu, & Kalu, 2019). Ujunwa et al. (2019) conducted a study using secondary data from 14 ECOWAS countries and found that violent conflicts had a considerable detrimental impact on food security among member states. In Nigeria, the issue of insecurity continues to be a significant obstacle (Meagher, 2014). Research indicates that insurgency has exacerbated the problem of food insecurity in the Nigerian economy by disrupting the production and distribution channels of the agricultural value chain (Kah, 2017; George, Adelaja, & Weatherspoon, 2019).

Since President Bola Tinubu took office, Nigeria has witnessed a substantial surge in food insecurity as a result of the elevated inflation rate in the economy. In September 2023, the food inflation rate surged to 46 percent. Unlike affluent households who possess the resources to acquire a wider range of meals, persons with lower incomes have restricted options for essential food products, which make up around 66% of their daily nutritional consumption. Based on data from the World Food Programme (WFP) in November 2023, around 42 percent of the population in 26 states in Nigeria and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) are currently facing food security challenges, with only barely sufficient food consumption. In the past year, there has been a 5.4 million increase in the number of individuals facing extreme food insecurity, bringing the total to 27 million. This accounts for almost 10 percent of the population (Jimoh et al., 2024). 

Food insecurity is a pressing problem in Nigeria, worsened by multiple socio-economic factors. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of these factors is crucial for developing efficient strategies to address hunger and guarantee food security. This study specifically examines the Tinubu administration period in order to analyse the socio-economic elements that contribute to food insecurity in Nigeria.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The recognition of food insecurity as a security challenge is crucial, not just for individual countries but also for the entire continent (Egwu et al., 2019). Hence, it is imperative for every nation to establish efficient measures to tackle this issue and avert the potential adverse outcomes commonly observed in countries with a history of instability. If the problem is rigorously addressed by applying the advise of a variety of policy makers, then the continent will attain self-sufficiency in terms of food security.

Kazeem (2024) contends that the escalating inflation rate had a detrimental impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), resulting in higher prices for essential commodities such as food, non-food products, and services. The urban areas exhibited a much higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 31.95% in contrast to the rural areas, which registered a CPI of 28.1%. The disparity in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) can partially account for the rise in anarchy, criminal activity, and looting. Rural households possessed a greater number of and more easily accessible coping methods in comparison to urban households. Unrestrained inflation has the potential to result in a rise in urban crime rates, which could also spread to rural areas during the height of the lean season (Kazeem, 2024). The average price of necessary goods increased by almost 185% compared to both the corresponding period in 2023 and the average of the previous five years. Over 60% of the population had negative consequences from this, exacerbating the poverty of already susceptible households, especially in regions with security issues.

The existence of Non-State Armed Groups (NSAGs) in the northeastern states of Nigeria has resulted in a substantial increase in the forced relocation of inhabitants from these regions (Kadiri, 2024). Furthermore, the northwest region has emerged as a significant hub for banditry, alongside the ongoing conflict in the northeast. Specifically, the states of Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, and Sokoto have been consistently facing attacks in numerous agricultural communities. However, the newly identified hotspot, known as the Farmers/herders conflict, is a growing issue in the northern central states of Benue, Niger, and Plateau (Aina, 2023). The presence of a significant population being forcibly relocated and the ongoing acts of aggression in these regions is a source of concern and a primary contributor to the lack of access to food in the nation (Jimoh et al., 2024).

Furthermore, despite attempts to tackle food insecurity, there are still deficiencies in comprehending the precise socio-economic reasons that sustain food insecurity under the Tinubu administration. This study aims to address this deficiency by examining the impact of social factors, such as educational attainment, healthcare availability, and social welfare systems, on the severity of food insecurity. Gaining insight into the interplay between these factors, economic policies, and agricultural practices is essential for formulating holistic plans. Thus, the need to conduct this inquiry arises.

Objectives of the study

The primary objective of this study is to critically investigate the socioeconomic determinants of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration. Specific objectives of this study are to:

To determine the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration.

To identify the socio-economic risk factors associated with food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration.

To evaluate the impact of food insecurity under the recent administration on Nigerians.

To proffer strategic interventions to address identified risk factors to enhance food security in Nigeria.

1.4 Research Questions

The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study:

What is the level of the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration?

What are the socio-economic risk factors associated with food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration?

What is the impact of food insecurity under the recent administration on Nigerians?

What are the strategic interventions provided to address identified risk factors to enhance food security in Nigeria?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

To determine the effectiveness of this study, the following research null hypotheses will be formulated to guide the study and it will be tested at 0.05% levels of significance.:

Ho: The level of the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration is low

Ha: The level of the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration is high.

1.6 Significance of the study

The study centers on a pivotal issue that profoundly affects the well-being and advancement of Nigeria. This study aims to develop a crucial benchmark for the agricultural industry in Nigeria, as well as for policymakers and the government. Furthermore, it will elevate the general quality of life for Nigerians.

The study will be highly significant for the agriculture sector as it will assist in devising strategies to augment agricultural productivity, which is crucial for ensuring economic stability and fostering growth. Improved food security can lead to economic benefits by reducing poverty and increasing workforce productivity.

Furthermore, this study will provide government officials and policy makers with vital insights that help guide the formulation and implementation of effective food security programmes. Furthermore, it will furnish the administration with helpful observations regarding areas that want improvement or alteration.

Moreover, future academics will employ it as a comprehensive analysis of existing literature. As a result, other students who are interested in studying this topic will be able to use this work as existing material that can be analysed in a critical manner. The study unequivocally improves the current scholarly comprehension of the socioeconomic factors associated with food insecurity in Nigeria during President Tinubu's administration.

1.7 Scope of the study

Broadly, this study focuses to critically investigate the socioeconomic determinants of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration. Specifically, this study seeks to determine the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration and identify the socio-economic risk factors associated with food insecurity in Nigeria under president Tinubu's administration. Further, this study will focus on evaluating the impact of food insecurity under the recent administration on Nigerians, and it also seeks to proffer strategic interventions to address identified risk factors to enhance food security in Nigeria.

1.8 Limitations of the study

Like in any human undertaking, the researchers encountered small constraints during the investigation. The primary constraint was the scarcity of comprehensive literature on the topic, given the limited availability of data for studying the socioeconomic factors influencing food insecurity in Nigeria during President Tinubu's tenure. Therefore, a substantial amount of time and effort was required to find the suitable materials, books, or information and collect data.

 Furthermore, this study is limited by its limited sample size and restricted geographical reach, namely concentrating just on Nigeria. Hence, the findings of this study cannot be extrapolated, thereby necessitating additional research. 

In addition, the researcher encountered a time limitation as a result of the necessity to do this research while simultaneously meeting the responsibilities of attending lectures and engaging in other educational pursuits.

1.9 Definition of terms

Food security: Food security is when a person is able to obtain a sufficient amount of healthy food on a day-to-day basis.

Food insecurity: Food insecurity is when a person cannot find adequate amounts of healthy food on a daily basis. Food security happens when a person does get the recommended amount of healthy food on a daily basis.

Socioeconomic: Socioeconomics is the social science that studies how economic activity affects and is shaped by social processes. In general, it analyzes how modern societies progress, stagnate, or regress because of their local or regional economy, or the global economy.

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